The Economy and Unemployment
Those that pooh-pooh concern over the burgeoning national debt are putting their heads in the sand. Now they are talking about raising the debt ceiling. That's like calling the credit card company and asking them to raise the limit on a credit card when we already have a balance that we may never pay back. I don't see spending being cut, and I don't see the deficit going down. I don't see anyone in either political party having the guts to do what needs to be done. It may only happen after another crash. You know what they say about someone having to hit rock-bottom before they turn their life around.
As much as they would like to take credit for creating jobs, our leaders in government can't create real jobs. They can create temporary jobs like the recent census workers, but that's about it. President Obama recently admitted that he realized too late that "there is no such thing as shovel-ready projects," in a recent interview with New York Times reporter Peter Baker, (NYTimes 10/12/2010). It is curious how the media will cover something as frivolous as an upcoming royal wedding with day-after-day reports, but virtually ignore this revelation. So throwing billions (or trillions) of dollars out there in a so-called stimulus really isn't working. At best, the government can help to create a "climate" that encourages innovation and enterprise. This is not done by printing money. Just get the hell out of the way.
My wife is the office manager for a small company. Last year, she placed an ad in the St. Pete Times for a salaried sales position. She got zero responses. Where are the unemployed? I have first-hand knowledge of two people who admitted that their unemployment checks discouraged them from looking for work. I'm not making light of being out of work. It sucks. Can we do something else besides just handing people money? There has to be a better way.
Design and Advertising
Gregg Greenberg recently interviewed John Shelton, CEO of Strata Software regarding the outlook for advertising in 2011. He said that 2011 will probably be more like 2009, not as "good" as 2010. It is a non-political year, so there will not be millions spent on campaigns. Shelton says that traditional network TV is down, but cable is up, so overall, TV is fairly flat as far as growth goes. Print continues its decline, of course. And the real area of growth is digital. That means web, cellphones, smartphones, and now the larger iPad-type devices are the really hot growth area for advertising.
What's going to happen?
Many companies are in a wait-and-see mode to a large degree regarding hiring and expansion. This is due to the fact that there is a lot of uncertainty in the market. Complicating this is the fact that much of the stimulus money that was given to banks to "free up" lending to business, was never loaned out. A lot of people think that there are two more "bubbles" that are about to burst. One is the student loan bubble. Student loan debt already eclipses credit card debt in the U.S. according to a report in USA TODAY. There has been debate on the idea of tying tuition rates to prospective future salaries that a student might expect to earn in a given field of study. This measure may stop a student from accumulating a debt they can't pay off. It may also block the only path many have to higher education. One argument is that admissions representatives (recruiters) oversell and over-promise in order to make sales. I think that ultimately much of the responsibility rests on the student.
The other bubble is commercial real estate. In an article in the Market Oracle, Mark Shedlock writes,
"between 2010 and 2014, about $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans will reach the end of their terms. Nearly half are at present 'underwater' – that is, the borrower owes more than the underlying property is currently worth."He sees 2011 as the year for the largest losses. A wave of commercial mortgage defaults could once again devastate the economy.
Advice to students
Try to keep that student loan balance down as low as possible. While you're in college, apply yourself to your schoolwork as never before. You have to make the most out of the money you're racking up in loans. After graduating, one student will get a job putting together ads for a coupon book. Another will get a job working on a branding and identity program for a new start-up enterprise. The difference between those two graduates will not be their grade-point average, age, race, personality, or economic status. It will be the level of professionalism, taste, creativity, and design excellence in their portfolios. Work hard.
What to do?
We just have to keep moving forward. Politically, we have to elect people who show the same kind of financial restraint that we are supposed to have in our personal affairs. In the advertising world, there are many ad agencies that have closed shop. Others that had 20 or so people on staff now have just a handful. I know of and have worked with, a good few ad executives that used to run small to medium shops, who now operate "virtual" agencies. This is not a recent development. This sort of change has been happening for the last 15 years at least. Many ad executives, art directors, designers, and writers who worked in agencies for years, are now working in-house for former clients. In business, we've got to avoid situations that may be doomed to fail. You have to be smart and not let ego get in the way. Last year a new sushi/pacific fusion restaurant opened in my small town of Oldsmar. It was very exclusive and high-priced. Wrong product, wrong place, and the wrong time. It lasted three months. Although my wife and I love sushi, we went there once and never returned. It was literally three minutes from our house.
Network and reconnect with former contacts. Like any business arena, in design and advertising it is often "who you know." 2011 is a good year for art directors and designers to join a professional organization like the AIGA. Never before has there been such a need for the benefits of design to be preached to the business world. That is what AIGA does.
In spite of the current business climate, I'm investing in technology, upgrading to CS5 in all programs. I've also began getting into CMS, content management systems, for web design. CMS seems like the trend that is taking hold. I'm also trying to be pro-active with my clients. Suggest things. Don't just wait for them to hand you something. Be a positive source of ideas and inspiration for them. I think that this is also good advice, even if you are on staff somewhere. Make yourself invaluable. It is a good way to keep your job and keep working.
With regard to the economy, the truth is rarely being told either in Washington or in the media - people hate to hear bad news, especially when they've had so much of it of late. However, it is a reality that we must face and deal with on both a professional and a private level. As you said, "sticking our head in the sand" won't make it go away.
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts on the issue of your wife's salaried sales position advertisement are that it may have more to do with the economic situation than people just resting on their "handouts". In these tough economic times a sales position can be like sailing a cargo ship without port to drop anchor. How many people want to sell when no one's buying?
I joined AIGA back in December of 2010 and am looking forward to taking advantage of what this year's calendar has to offer. As for work? I got it in abundance, especially now that I'm serving my internship at Artistik Magazine. Everything I tackle now is done with my eyes focused squarely on the horizon.
I noticed some job postings on the local AIGA site. See them?
ReplyDeleteGreat entry. I was a graphic design student of yours years back. I graduated in 2007 from IADT. I was touring Rinaldi Printing yesterday with my Creative Director and your name popped in my head as I remembered my first trip to a printer. It was a field trip in one of your classes to Hillsborough printing when they were in business. I finally got a full-time job doing mainly advertising for Taco Bell and KFC mainly at an agency called Landers & Partners in St. Petersburg. I freelance there part-time for a year before being offered full-time. For about three years I worked full-time at Target stocking shelves after graduating. You are right about hard work. There is no substitute. If you have passion for design and keep pushing forward, trying to make it in the business, it is inevitable that something will come along. Basically I wanted to comment to tell you I appreciate having you as a teacher and going to college was the best thing I could of ever done. Not for the knowledge I gathered or the student loans, but the invaluable design perspectives/tips of teachers. Also, learning how to progress and adapt to new knowledge as I journey in my design career. The biggest lesson I took away from school is if you learn how to sketch well and convey great solutions/ideas to a client/Creative director, you are worth more than some cocky kid that knows all the design programs. Flashy design with no solid foundation is just polished garbage. Thanks for being the straigh-forward, knowledgeable, and dedicated teacher you are. I'm sure some people don't like you as a teacher, but those people don't really want to learn and make something of themselves. They want the glory without the effort.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the kind words. Your story is typical of those who "make it" in the business. It does take hard work and perseverance. If my memory serves me correctly, Landers and Partners has been around for a very long time. I interviewed there when I was starting out many years ago.
ReplyDeleteYes, they have been around for almost thirty years I believe. It's a good place to start off my career. My Creative Director has worked in the industry for 20 years or so and I'm learning much from her. You're welcome for the kind words. I know some students don't appreciate a good teacher who makes them work hard and more importantly think, but I wanted to let you know I did.
ReplyDelete